Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for November 11: The current trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory (III)

posted on: November 11, 2016

Alternative (and truest ) “classical” interpretation as per Page 77 of Rhea’s book “The Dow Theory” Please mind that I am writing before the close. Things might change. In the past two post I analyzed the trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory. The first post showed Schannep’s interpretation (not of his own “Dow Theory” […]

Dow Theory Update for November 7: The current trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory (II)

posted on: November 7, 2016

Appraisal as per a strict application of the “Rhea/Classical Dow Theory” We know that the trend determined by Schannep’s Dow Theory is bearish (signal of November 2, as explained here). We also know that the trend according to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory as interpreted by Schannep is bullish (signal of 9/7/2016), as was explained here. […]

Dow Theory Update for November 4: The current trend as per the classical/Rhea Dow Theory (I)

posted on: November 4, 2016

Schannep’s interpretation In my last post I wrote that there are diverging opinions when it comes to determining the primary trend according to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory. The starting point where, it seems, there is unanimity is a primary bear market which was signaled on 6/24/2016. Disagreement begins when it comes to gauging the existence […]

Dow Theory Update for November 3: Primary bear market signaled for US Stocks on November 3rd, as per Schannep’s Dow Theory

posted on: November 3, 2016

Trend under classical/Rhea Dow Theory unclear US STOCKS Two days ago I was reporting that the Industrials were very close to signaling a primary bear market signal. Well, on November 2nd, at the close, the Industrials deigned to confirm the SPY (SP 500) which had violated its secondary reaction closing lows on 10/13/2016. As per […]

Dow Theory Update for November 1: Industrials failed to confirm primary bear market by less than 3 points

posted on: November 1, 2016

Hence, US stocks continue flirting with primary bear market signal US STOCKS The primary trend is bullish as explained here and here The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market) as explained here According to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory no secondary reaction has been signaled yet, as explained here. However, I […]

Dow Theory review for 2015: Silver and Gold miners ETFs

posted on: October 25, 2016

As I did when analyzing 2015 for silver and gold, I, once again, apologize for posting this review so late. Better late than never, though. Let’s see how fared in 2015 the Dow Theory when applied to the silver and gold miners ETFs (SIL and GDX) SIL and GDX SIL: The year started with an […]

Dow Theory Update for October 20: US stocks continue flirting with primary bear market signal

posted on: October 20, 2016

Trends unchanged I am writing before the close so things might change after the close. So readers beware. US STOCKS The primary trend is bullish as explained hereand here The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market) as explained here According to the “Rhea/Classical” Dow Theory no secondary reaction has been […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (VIII)

posted on: October 17, 2016

Dow Theory’s performance under weak cyclical bull markets This “stress-test” saga has dealt with performance under secular bear markets Another environment which is detrimental to the Dow Theory is weak cyclical bull markets. What is a cyclical bull and bear market? I see cyclical bull/bear markets as a long movement which is an order of […]

Dow Theory Update for October 14: A deeper look into the primary bear market signal for gold, silver and their miners

posted on: October 14, 2016

US stocks flirting with primary bear market signal (but not yet) In my last post (October 4th) I alerted about a primary bear market signal for gold, silver and their respective ETF miners. Well, I’d like to further delve into the primary bear market signal and the outcome for the trade taken as per the […]

Dow Theory Update for October 4: Stocks set up for primary bear market signal on September 30

posted on: October 4, 2016

It is very likely that a primary bear market for gold and silver will be signaled at today’s close I am writing before the close so things might change after the close. So reader beware. I am with a very heavy schedule so it is going to be a short post. US STOCKS The primary […]

Dow Theory Update for September 14: Secondary reaction for US stocks signaled on Sep 13

posted on: September 14, 2016

Classical Dow Theory hasn’t signaled any secondary reaction yet The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained here and here Yesterday, both the Transports and the Industrials declined more than 3% of the primary bull market top (8/15 for the Industrials and 9/8 for the Transports). The S&P 500 merely declined -2.88% (off its […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Putting the Dow Theory under Stress-Test (VII)

posted on: September 9, 2016

When most ruled-based trading ceases to work, the Dow Theory continues to perform In this post of my stress-test saga, I made clear that we are currently living a real “stress-test”. Current market conditions are not the best for the Dow Theory. Narrow ranges of less than 15% are detrimental (but not lethal) to the […]