Category: Insights

Dow Theory special Issue: Assessing the current primary bull market signal

posted on: July 19, 2013

If you are a follower of this Dow Theory blog, you know that on July 18, a primary bull market in stocks was signaled. You can find the details here. And here you have the vital chart: On July18, the Transports broke up the last recorded closing highs. A new primary bull market was […]

Dow Theory Update for July 18: Primary bull market for stocks signaled today

posted on: July 18, 2013

The Transports finally confirm higher closing highs made by SPY and Industrials With no more preambles, let’s get commenced with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Stocks After some days lagging behind, the Transports finally managed to break above their 05/17/2013 closing highs, and thereby confirmed the Industrials and SPY’s prior breakout of 07/11/2013. A […]

Dow Theory Update for July 17: Precious metals weak

posted on: July 17, 2013

Primary trend of stocks continues bearish Let’s begin with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Stocks The SPY, Transports, and Industrials closed up. As explained here, the Transports have failed to confirm for 5 consecutive days the higher closing highs made by the Industrials and the SPY . Therefore, no primary bull market has been signaled […]

Dow Theory Update for July 16: Primary bear market in stocks still in force

posted on: July 16, 2013

Stocks close down, and Transports fail to confirm Formidable article on Maulding Economics concerning what is really happening to gold I give you the link without further ado: http://www.mauldineconomics.com/ttmygh/what-if If you are serious about understanding current developments, you are encouraged to read it. However, as with any “fundamental” opinion, so should put it into a […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Transports, once again, refuse to confirm higher highs

posted on: July 15, 2013

Primary bear market for stocks still in force until Transports confirm. Let’s get started with our Dow Theory commentary for today. Stocks The SPY, Industrials, and Transports closed up. As you can see on the chart below, the Transports have not bettered the last recorded highs (blue horizontal line) yet, and, accordingly, as explained here, […]

Dow Theory Update for July 12: Dissecting GDX and SIL’s secondary reaction

posted on: July 12, 2013

I am writing before the close, so I cannot provide you with closing figures. If the Transports exceed their 05/17/2013 closing high, then a primary bull market would be signaled, as both the SPY and the Industrials broke up their respective closing highs yesterday. More about such breakup, and the relevant chart here.If GLD and […]

Dow Theory Update for July 11: Stocks missed primary bull market signal by a hair

posted on: July 11, 2013

Secondary trend for GDX and SIL turns bullish Good article on Seeking Alpha concerning negative GOFO Dave Kranzler penned an interesting article “What GOFO is and Why it’s now very bullish for gold”. In a very straightforward manners he makes clear that there is an acute shortage of physical gold, and that past occurrences of […]

Dow Theory Update for July 10: Dissecting the current secondary reaction in stocks

posted on: July 10, 2013

Stocks take a breather. Precious metals languish Yesterday I announced the secondary trend of the market had turned bullish. This is tantamount to saying that there is an ongoing secondary reaction against the primary bearish trend. Well, let’s dig deeper into it. As I wrote here, please bear in mind that appraising secondary reactions […]

Dow Theory Update for July 9: Stocks close to breaking the last recorded highs

posted on: July 9, 2013

Possible change of trends for stocks at hand Gold GOFO rates turn negative Zero Hedgereports that GOFO rates have just turned negative. As the article explains, it is difficult to isolate “in real time” what caused this dislocation. However, irrespective of the specific cause, a negative GOFO indicates that something is wrong with the gold […]

Dow Theory Update for July 8: Stocks closed up. Primary trend remains bearish

posted on: July 8, 2013

Richard Russell on the importance of market timing Richard Russell, of the “Dow Theory Letters”, recently nailed it when he wrote “And it’s also a matter of timing. The graveyards of Wall Street are filled with brilliant men who were right too soon.” I couldn’t say it better in so few words. What separates winners […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Secular trend versus long term trend

posted on: July 5, 2013

Case in point GOLD Followers of this Dow Theory blog know I am quite skeptical as to investing along the secular trend. My post “Fundamental versus Technical analysis and Dow Theory. Who is right?” highlights the risks pertaining to investing along the secular trend. When I refer to “secular” trend, I mean trends lasting at […]

Dow Theory Update for July 5: Precious metals listless. Trends unchanged

posted on: July 5, 2013

Stocks closed up Great article on the advantages of market timing Those skeptical as to the benefits of market timing, and its ability to increase slightly profits while drastically reducing drawdowns versusbuy and hold, are advised to read “Timing Method Performance Over Ten Decades“, penned by Mutual Fund Observer. The article delivers a breakdown of […]