Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for May 13: All investing strategies need protection against bear markets. Three examples. Make no mistake about it.

posted on: May 13, 2022

A brief update on the trends for U.S.U.S. stocks, U.S. Bonds, and precious metals & their miners’ ETFs. The primary trends for gold & silver, SIL & GDX, and U.S. bond markets have not changed since I last reported. What is new since my last reporting is a nasty secondary reaction against the […]

Dow Theory Update for April 26: Shorting US bonds with the Dow Theory. Does it work?

posted on: April 26, 2022

Answer: Yes! Readers of this blog should know by now that the Dow Theory works. The measure of “working” is twofold: (a) drawdown reduction and (b) outperformance versus Buy & Hold (B&H). I recently explored the “long side” of the Dow Theory with US bonds (ETFs: TLT & EDV). The results were outstanding, as you […]

Dow Theory Update for April 20: Update on the trends for precious metals and their ETF miners

posted on: April 20, 2022

The trend for US bonds remains bearish I am posting before the close, so things might change. Please do your homework. GOLD AND SILVER In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. A) Market situation if one appraises secondary […]

Dow Theory Update for April 19: Classical Dow Theory trends update

posted on: April 19, 2022

Trends for US bonds and precious metals unchanged “Rhea’s /classical” Dow Theory Depending on the way one appraised the secondary reaction following the 3/23/2020 bear market bottom, the primary trend was signaled as bullish, either on 4/29/20 or 5/26/2020. Please check the links to fully apprehend the two alternative ways: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/05/dow-theory-update-for-may-15th.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2020/06/dow-theory-update-for-june-3-us-stocks.html The Dow […]

Boosting the Dow Theory: Relative Strength System with Dow Theory for the 21st Century filter

posted on: April 4, 2022

What happens when one mixes a great timing indicator like the Dow Theory for the 21st Century (DT21C) with a relative strength system? Answer: Even more outperformance and a better risk-reward profile v. Buy and Hold (B&H). Relative Strength (RS) is based on the proven fact that assets (stocks, indexes, sectors, commodities, etc.) […]

Dow Theory Update: Does the Dow Theory work when applied to US bonds? (III)

posted on: March 22, 2022

Comparisons between the Dow Theory, a moving average system and Buy and Hold In the previous two posts of this saga, we saw that both TLT and EDV vastly outperformed B&H while dramatically cutting drawdowns. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/02/dow-theory-update-for-february-16-does.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2022/03/dow-theory-update-does-dow-theory-work.html Inquisitive minds could think that, after all, the period examined was overall bullish and that any […]

Dow Theory Update for March 9th: Primary bull market signaled for gold and silver on 3/1/22 when one takes the “longer-term” interpretation of the Dow Theory.

posted on: March 9, 2022

The primary trend also bullish when one takes the “short-term” interpretation. GOLD AND SILVER In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. […]

Dow Theory Update: Does the Dow Theory work when applied to US bonds? (II)

posted on: March 7, 2022

Performance with extended duration bonds (EDV) In the previous post, I proved that the Dow Theory works well with US Bonds. We determined the trend by using TLT and IEF and applying the trend so appraised to TLT which corresponds to US bonds with remaining maturities greater than 20 years. Today we are […]

Dow Theory Update for February 16: Does the Dow Theory work when applied to US bonds? (I)

posted on: February 16, 2022

Answer: YES! This is a long post that took a good deal of research. If you want to become convinced about the Dow Theory being arguably the best timing system for trades lasting more than six months, continue reading. Dow Theorist Hamilton stated that the Dow Theory could be applied to other markets. However, he […]

Ten Thoughts on Trading/Investing

posted on: January 18, 2022

Ten Thoughts on Trading/Investing 1) Talking about the markets is fine and dandy. However, all investors need to know when to buy and when to sell. Even famed long-term investors sell. Buying without having an idea of the conditions that will trigger a sale is a recipe for disaster. 2) Technical Analysis […]

Dow Theory Update for January 10: Primary bear market for US bonds signaled on 1/5/22

posted on: January 10, 2022

US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. TLT is the iShares 20 years + Treasury bond ETF. More about it here IEF is the iShares 7-10 years Treasury bond ETF. More about […]

Dow Theory Update for January 8: Setup for a potential primary bear market in precious metals completed

posted on: January 8, 2022

Primary trend for US interest rates bearish GOLD AND SILVER In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by the three weeks dogma. The primary trend […]