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Dow Theory Analysis Featured in ‘Markets Insider’: Implications of Recent SELL Signal
I thank Matthew Fox for quoting my Dow Theory analysis in “Markets Insider”. As stated in Matthew’s article, on 10/23/2023, the Dow Industrials broke down below its 10/3/23 closing lows, triggering a SELL signal. The table below shows the most relevant price action that led to the 10/23/23 Sell signal. Historical data from 1953 reveals […]
Dow Theory Update for November 10: Secondary (bullish) reaction for SIL & GDX signaled on 11/10/22
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Dow Theory Update for February 4: Primary bear market signaled on January 27, 2022 for precious metals ETFs
Gold and Silver remain in a primary bull market when appraised with “shorter-term” Dow Theory. GOLD AND SILVER In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to appraise secondary reactions. A) Market situation if one appraises secondary reactions not bound by […]
Dow Theory Update for November 17: Secondary reaction against the primary bear market and setup for a potential Bull market signal in US Bonds
Primary and secondary trends for precious metals, their metals, and US stocks remain bullish. I am writing before the close. So please do your own homework. US INTEREST RATES General Remarks: In this post, I provided a thorough explanation concerning the rationale behind my use of two alternative definitions to […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners: Whole study
I have merged the following three posts into one, which has become a “page” (see the heading of this blog): http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_15.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2021/06/dow-theory-special-issue-assessing-dow_24.html If you want to become convinced about the superiority of the Dow Theory over other trend following strategies and check by yourself the outperformance of the trades that were signaled “live” […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Assessing the Dow Theory’s performance when applied to precious metals and their miners (III)
Results for and SIL/GDX The first post of this saga set out the premises of our study while the second post, analyzed the outperformance of SLV/GLD versus Buy and Hold (BAH). Today, we will see the outcome of the trades that were signaled on this blog “live” for SIL/GDX since its start […]
Dow Theory Update for May 28th: Setup for a primary bull market in US bonds completed
If TLT confirms IEF’s breakup, a primary bull market in US bonds will be signaled I am writing before the close, so things might change. Readers, as always, do your own homework. US STOCKS Be totally updated on the current trends (and danger signs) by becoming a Subscriber to thedowtheory.com, and thereby increase your […]
Dow Theory Update for July 6th: Setup for primary bear market completed for SIL and GDX
Secondary trend for US stocks turned bearish on June 26th These words are being penned before the close of July 6th so things might change by the close. So readers beware. Please excuse the quality of the charts, as I’m on a short vacation on a paradise beach, so I’m working with my laptop instead […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: Did Rhea really tell that secondary reactions had to last three weeks? (II)
Demolishing the 3 weeks time requirement dogma In the first post of this saga, which you can find here, I made the bold statement that Schannep’s Dow Theory by shortening the time requirement for a secondary reaction and by doing away with the 1/3 retracement of the previous bull/bear swing was actually closer to Rhea […]
Dow Theory Special Issue: The Rule of Seven: A vital tool to determine profit objectives
Do Dow Theorists need to establish profit objectives? Rhea wrote that the Dow Theory could not forecast the extent of a rally or decline. In other words, the Dow Theory determines likely direction, and we take what the market offers us. However, Schannep long time ago incorporated into his arsenal a tool that allows […]
Dow Theory special issue: Why it is a bad idea to apply the Dow Theory to monthly highs and the vital importance of confirmation
Secondary reactions and not monthly highs are the valid breakup points In a previous post I said I was going to test a breakout system based on taking 1 month high in order to see if the Dow Theory could be (mis)interpreted as implying that the joint penetration of 1 month highs is a valid […]