Category: Dow Theory and bonds

Dow Theory Update for August 6: Trends unchanged; precious metals and US bonds continue making higher highs true to their primary trend.

posted on: August 6, 2019

Secondary reaction for US stocks continues I am writing before the close. So things might change. US STOCKS The primary trend as per Schannep’s Dow Theory is bullish since March 1st, 2019 when both the Industrials and the S&P 500 closed at +19% from the 12/24/2018 bear market closing lows. However, “capitulation” suggested the opening […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Which markets are better suited to the Dow Theory (and Trend following in general) and the reason why

posted on: June 26, 2019

The power of trends and why it is not wise to disregard a Dow Theory signal based on the belief that the market is already overstretched. This is another post that I was written on June 19th at Nashville’s airport while being stranded due to bad weather conditions. However, it has been “matured” and edited […]

Dow Theory Update for October 24: Is the current primary bull market signal for US stocks doomed to fail?

posted on: October 24, 2015

Trends for stocks, gold silver and their miners unchanged. I have not posted in the last few days for the following reasons: a) I was traveling so time was extremely scarce b) Trends have not changed. c) I am re-reading Schannep’s book for the 10thtime. I am in a period of introspection unearthing more jewels […]

Dow Theory Update for June 18: Chinese stocks are undergoing a (bearish) secondary reaction

posted on: June 18, 2015

Trends unchanged. US stocks: The ranging continues, and with it, trends have not changed. Thus, as per my reading of the Dow Theory, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Here you can find the latest in-depth explanation, which remains fully applicable to current market conditions: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/05/dow-theory-update-for-may-18-primary.html I say that the secondary trend remains bullish, […]

Dow Theory Update for June 10: Nuances concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions.

posted on: June 11, 2015

Trends remain unchanged. We know that the appraisal of secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Accordingly, Rhea wrote that “probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating important secondary reactions” (Rhea’s “The Dow Theory”, Fraser Edition, page 61). Thus, recent price action, and my particular divergence from Schannep’s Dow […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: US bonds flashing primary bear market signal

posted on: June 3, 2015

We have to wait to today’s close to be sure. Some days ago, I alerted that US debt was flirting with a primary bear market signal. Furthermore, I made clear that a new primary bull market had been signaled for the Euro and CHF. I am writing before the close, so my conclusions are not […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: A closer look at the Chinese primary bull market in stocks

posted on: May 20, 2015

Some days ago, I made a cursory reference to an ongoing primary bull market in Chinese stocks. One reader of this Dow Theory blog kindly asked me to further analyze the bull market in Chinese stocks. As I explained here, the Dow Theory can also be applied to foreign stocks indices and even assets other […]

Dow Theory Update for May 13: Is the USD bull market over?

posted on: May 13, 2015

EUR under primary bull market as per the Dow Theory. US debt just about to signal primary bear market. Following the suggestion of Algyros, reader of this Dow Theory blog, I have made it easier for its followers to know the current state of the trend (see banner above), as far as I am able […]

Coiled markets and the Dow Theory: A closer look to TLT and IEF ETFs

posted on: April 28, 2014

In my last post, I wrote about consolidations I see occurring in several markets. Well, let’s take a look at interest rates (TLT and IEF, the 20+ years and 7-10 years bonds ETFs, respectively). It will be a very cursory analysis, as my time remains in short supply. Here you have the vital chart which […]

Dow Theory special issue: Revisiting the BLV/GLD ratio

posted on: December 19, 2012

Still at crossroads? We have dealt with the BLV/GLD ratio on several occasions in this Dow Theory blog. To understand why this ratio is important, I suggest you read here and here the relevant posts to get a taste of it. If the ratio turns bearish (stronger gold) it means a hard time […]

Dow Theory spells trouble for bonds: Clouds on the horizon. Part II

posted on: October 25, 2012

Yesterday, in this Dow Theory blog, I promised you that I’d talk about the BLV/GLD ratio. Here we go. Let’s begin with an old post called “Dow Theory spells trouble for bonds: Clouds on the horizon” which you can read here Go to that post and look at the BLV/GLD chart that is displayed […]

Rearranging the big picture in a week full of relevant Dow Theory events

posted on: October 6, 2012

Weekly Dow Theory recap This was a week rich in Dow Theory significant events as well plain technical ones. Here is a summary of the messages the markets gave us this week of which this blog took due notice. 1) Bonds are at a critical juncture. If they turn weaker, they may ignite […]