Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for November 18: Precious metals miners ETFs averted primary bear market signal for another day

posted on: November 18, 2015

US Stocks have not rallied three percent yet. Very brief update. US STOCKS The primary and secondary trends are bullish as explained here and here The secondary trend is bearish (secondary bearish reaction against the primary bullish trend) as explained here: I wrote yesterday that at least one index had to rally by at least […]

Dow Theory Update for Nov 17: Primary bear market (or reconfirmation) for gold and silver signaled today

posted on: November 17, 2015

US Stocks under bearish secondary reaction My apologies for this post. It has been written in a hurry, and I would have liked to have more time to write a more structured one. However, there are changes in trends, and I feel it is important to provide information to the followers of this Dow Theory […]

Dow Theory Update for October 24: Is the current primary bull market signal for US stocks doomed to fail?

posted on: October 24, 2015

Trends for stocks, gold silver and their miners unchanged. I have not posted in the last few days for the following reasons: a) I was traveling so time was extremely scarce b) Trends have not changed. c) I am re-reading Schannep’s book for the 10thtime. I am in a period of introspection unearthing more jewels […]

Dow Theory Update for October 14: Primary bull market reluctantly signaled for gold and silver on October 12

posted on: October 14, 2015

However, I still don’t fully like the secondary reaction that defined the pivot point to be broken out for a primary bull market to be signaled US STOCKS The primary and secondary trend is bullish as explained here and here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-9-primary.html http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/10/dow-theory-update-for-october-8-primary.html GOLD AND SILVER On October 12, 2015 GLD finally deigned to confirm SLV, […]

Dow Theory Update for October 9: The primary bull market for US stocks signaled on Oct. 7 unambiguously confirmed

posted on: October 9, 2015

Trends in precious metals unchanged Yesterday, I acknowledged that a primary bull market had been signaled. However, I acknowledge it grudgingly, as the S&P 500 just exceeded its September 16th closing highs by a hair and the SPY was lagging behind. Based on that, I gave a list of technical reasons that might advocate for […]

Dow Theory Update for October 8: Primary bull market signaled for US Stocks on Oct. 7

posted on: October 8, 2015

At least theoretically, as it has been a very dubious signal. The S&P 500 closing high of September 16th, 2015 was 1995.31. Yesterday, October 7th, the S&P 500 closed above such a closing high by closing at 1995.83. Thus, the S&P 500 managed by a hair to exceed the closing highs of the secondary reaction, […]

Dow Theory Update for October 5: Primary bull market for mining stocks and Chinese stocks signaled today

posted on: October 5, 2015

Secondary trends changed (bullishly) in gold and silver Well, it seems that trends in all markets are changing. Today there is plenty of information to digest. Stocks (both US and Chinese) undergoing a secondary reaction against a primary bear market. I apologize to my readers for not having given updates as to the secondary reactions, […]

Dow Theory Update for September 23: US Stocks set up for primary bull market

posted on: September 23, 2015

On September 22nd, both the SPY and the Transports declined by more than 3%. The SPY declined -3.13% and the Transports -3.88%. Today such declines have been extended. The Industrials failed yesterday and today to decline by more than 3%. However, as per Schannep’s Dow Theory, it suffices with just one index to decline more […]

Dow Theory Update for September 19: Stocks on secondary (bullish) reaction since Sep 16th

posted on: September 18, 2015

Primary Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend is bearish, as was explained here and here. On 9/16/2015 the SPY and the Industrials bettered its 08/27/2015 closing highs, and hence confirmed the Transports which had already done so some days ago. All in all, on 9/16/2015: a) The three indices we monitor had […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (II)

posted on: September 14, 2015

How to exit when the Dow Theory refuses to setup “orderly” primary bear market signals. Recently, I wrote about the primary bear market signal for Chinese stocks. As you well know this primary bear market signal came much too late, if we are to judge from the percentage decline from the top to the exit […]

Dow Theory special issue: Why the Dow Theory uses daily bars, not weekly and for good reason

posted on: September 7, 2015

Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold and silver and their ETFs miners unchanged. Travis, one reader of this blog, recently posted a comment whereby he asked why I use daily bars instead of weekly bars to determine what allegedly is the long-term trend. What follows is my answer, which deserves a post of its […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Primary bear market for Chinese stocks signaled last Friday 21st

posted on: August 24, 2015

And some thoughts concerning US Stocks… Market relevant events continue to pile up, while time remains in short supply. Last Friday, FXI broke below the lows of the last secondary reaction (which were made on October, 10th, 2014), and, accordingly confirmed HAO, which had already done so on July 7th, 2015. Confirmed lower lows, means […]