Category: Insights

Dow Theory Special Issue: Was it a primary bear market signal under the classical Dow Theory?

posted on: August 21, 2015

Bank of America seems to think so As reported by Zero Hedge, BofA seems to have detected a primary bear market signal by applying the Rhea/classical Dow Theory, as you can read here. However, I have my qualms as to the correctness of such a signal under the classical Dow Theory. On the other hand, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21 (II): More about the primary bear market signaled for US stocks at the close of August 20

posted on: August 21, 2015

Some hours before, I wrote that yesterday, as per my reading of the Dow Theory (which is Schannep’s with some minor quirks) a primary bear market was signaled. Let’s delve further into it. Here you have an updated chart: Anatomy of a primary bear market signal. As you can see, on the left side of […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21: Primary bear market for stocks (as per my Reading) signaled on August 20

posted on: August 21, 2015

I am writing before the open of August 21st. I hope to be able to post later today, and give you more ample information as to the new primary bear market in US Stocks. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for August 19: Lessons learned from the Chinese stock market crash (I)

posted on: August 19, 2015

Trends unchanged. This post was overdue, but time was scarce. While I am an ardent believer in the Dow Theory (of any persuasion whatsoever), I try not to be a fool. The Dow Theory is, in my opinion, the best mean to extract out performance and diminish drawdowns, providedthe market obliges. By an “obliging” market, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 5: No primary bear market signal for US Stocks (yet or never)

posted on: August 5, 2015

Trends unchanged for US Stocks and gold universe US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate […]

Dow Theory Update for July 29: Lessons (re)learned from the precious metals universe and Chinese stocks

posted on: July 29, 2015

Trends remain unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html All indices rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. So now either: a) Stocks jointly violate their secondary reaction lows, in […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Primary bear market for (paper) Gold and silver signaled today

posted on: July 15, 2015

I don’t have much time to blog today. However, take my word for it: GLD by violating March 17, 2015 closing lows has signaled a primary bear market today. Thus, the entire precious metals universe (and their gold and silver miners ETFs) is in a bearish mode. The primary trend for stocks remains bullish, albeit […]

Dow Theory Update for July 13: US Stocks set up for primary bear market

posted on: July 13, 2015

Trends unchanged US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html The Transports have rallied more than 3% off their July 8th closing lows. The SPY and Industrials have failed to reach the 3% threshold. However, […]

Dow Theory Update for July 8: Gold and Silver flirting with the bear.

posted on: July 8, 2015

GDX and SIL under a primary bear market. US STOCKS The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here and here. The secondary trend is bearish (secondary reaction against the primary bull market), as explained here. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-1-dissecting.html GOLD AND SILVER The primary trend is bullish as explained here. The secondary trend turned bearish on February […]

Dow Theory Update for July 1: Dissecting the ongoing secondary reaction for US stocks

posted on: July 1, 2015

Is paper gold dying? Yesterday, I warned that the secondary trend for stocks had turned bearish on June 29th (secondary reaction against the primary bull market). Please mind that I slightly depart from Schannep when it comes to considering “in the clear” signals and subsequent secondary reactions. More about this small discrepancy here and here. […]

Dow Theory Update for June 30: Secondary (bearish) Reaction for stocks since June 29

posted on: June 30, 2015

No time now for deep explanations, which will come tomorrow, if time allows. Take my word: The secondary trend for US Stocks turned bearish on June 29. Sincerely, The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Special Issue: Maximum Drawdown and average returns for the Dow Theory versus buy and hold

posted on: June 29, 2015

Trends remain unchanged. This post is the detailed answer to one question posed by a follower of this Dow Theory blog. Hope it will serve Algyros and other readers to further a deeper understanding of the Dow Theory. Here is question: “I was wondering if you had CAGR and Max DD backtested information for your […]