Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for June 24: Gary Antonacci on stops. Let’ s heed the words of a sage

posted on: June 24, 2015

Trends remain unchanged There are three names that shine when it comes to (a) investment practical acumen; (b) avoid BS. These names are (in alphabetical order): 1) Antonacci. http://www.dualmomentum.net/ 2) Moening http://stateofthemarkets.com/ 3) Schannep https://staging.thedowtheory.com/ I have praised Antonacci’s work in the past (here and here). He has recently penned a new article entitled “Momentum […]

Dow Theory Update for June 18: Chinese stocks are undergoing a (bearish) secondary reaction

posted on: June 18, 2015

Trends unchanged. US stocks: The ranging continues, and with it, trends have not changed. Thus, as per my reading of the Dow Theory, the primary and secondary trend remains bullish. Here you can find the latest in-depth explanation, which remains fully applicable to current market conditions: http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2015/05/dow-theory-update-for-may-18-primary.html I say that the secondary trend remains bullish, […]

Dow Theory Update for June 10: Nuances concerning the appraisal of secondary reactions.

posted on: June 11, 2015

Trends remain unchanged. We know that the appraisal of secondary reactions is not an easy feat. Accordingly, Rhea wrote that “probably no two students would agree on any rule for selecting and tabulating important secondary reactions” (Rhea’s “The Dow Theory”, Fraser Edition, page 61). Thus, recent price action, and my particular divergence from Schannep’s Dow […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: On the deceptiveness of trying to gauge value versus cold hard technical action

posted on: June 6, 2015

Now it could be that stocks are not so overvalued after all. This article on Ritholz blog “The Big Picture” seems to suggest that if we adjust for current inflation valuations are not expensive at all. So, all the chatter of overvaluation notwithstanding, it could be that there is not so much secular headwind for […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: US bonds flashing primary bear market signal

posted on: June 3, 2015

We have to wait to today’s close to be sure. Some days ago, I alerted that US debt was flirting with a primary bear market signal. Furthermore, I made clear that a new primary bull market had been signaled for the Euro and CHF. I am writing before the close, so my conclusions are not […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: Dual Momentum versus Dow Theory

posted on: May 30, 2015

Trends remain unchanged I have compared in the past the Dow Theory versus moving averages. Let’s compare now the Dow Theory and Dual Momentum. This post is the edited correspondence with one follower of this Dow Theory blog. He, like I, has read the book “Dual Momentum Investing“, by Gary Antonacci. By the way, I […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: A closer look at the Chinese primary bull market in stocks

posted on: May 20, 2015

Some days ago, I made a cursory reference to an ongoing primary bull market in Chinese stocks. One reader of this Dow Theory blog kindly asked me to further analyze the bull market in Chinese stocks. As I explained here, the Dow Theory can also be applied to foreign stocks indices and even assets other […]

Dow Theory Update for May 18: Primary bull market for US Stocks reconfirmed

posted on: May 18, 2015

Trends unchanged in all markets. US STOCKS On 5/14/2015 the SPY bettered its last recorded primary bull market closing high of 3/2/2015. Today the Industrials has confirmed by exceeding its 3/2/2015 closing high. As per my reading of the Dow Theory, stocks did not even enter into a secondary reaction, since the lowest confirmed closing […]

Dow Theory Update for May 13: Is the USD bull market over?

posted on: May 13, 2015

EUR under primary bull market as per the Dow Theory. US debt just about to signal primary bear market. Following the suggestion of Algyros, reader of this Dow Theory blog, I have made it easier for its followers to know the current state of the trend (see banner above), as far as I am able […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: “Lines”. Classical Dow Theory and Schannep

posted on: May 11, 2015

Why Schannep’s Dow Theory needs no lines. Trends for US Stocks, gold, silver and their respective miners EFTs remain unchanged. The primary trend for Stocks remains bullish, and the precious metals universe remains bullish. Gold, silver and their ETFs remain caught in an endless secondary reaction. What I wrote some weeks ago remains a faithful […]

Dow Theory Update for May 7: More about the unreliability of trying to gauge the secular trend

posted on: May 7, 2015

Primary and secondary trends for stocks, gold, silver and their miners unchanged. The lull continues. So, once again, I’ll focus on issues pertaining to investing with a Dow Theory focus. Today I will delve into secular trends, valuations and what to do about them. This blogger truly yours has been skeptical as to trying to […]

Dow Theory Special Issue: “Internal” confirmation embedded in the Dow Theory: Time should confirm extent and viceversa. Therein lies its force.

posted on: April 29, 2015

Moving averages, Breakout strategies, etc. are no match for the Dow Theory No new from the markets. Primary and secondary trends unchanged. And hence, I will further cogitate about the Dow Theory. Such moments of market lull are good to rethink one’s premises. The more I know the entrails of the Dow Theory, the more […]