Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for September 4: Precious metals fall out of bed. Trends remain unchanged

posted on: September 4, 2014

Stocks remain in primary bull market US Stocks The Transports closed up. The SPY and the Industrials closed down. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013, March 7th, 2014, and more recently, September 2nd, 2014, […]

Dow Theory Update for September 3: Transports made higher closing highs (yesterday) and confirm the SPY

posted on: September 3, 2014

Did the primary bull market get reconfirmed? Today’s post focuses exclusively on the US stocks. No news on the precious metals front today, as trends remain unchanged. Yesterday, the Transports bettered their July 23rd, 2014 closing highs and, accordingly they have confirmed the SPY, which exceeded its July 24th, 2014 closing highs on August 20th, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 29: What does GDXJ (gold junior miners ETFs) know?

posted on: August 29, 2014

Non confirmation persists. The longer it takes the more dubious the current rally Well today, I could find some more time. I think this is a juicy Dow Theory update. Keep your eyes on the precious metals miners, which are clearly more bullish (within their primary bear markets) than gold and silver (more below). US […]

Dow Theory Update for August 28: Stocks close down and lack of confirmation persists

posted on: August 28, 2014

No news on the precious metals front. US STOCKS Days pass by and the SPY higher closing highs above the primary bull market highs remain unconfirmed. Furthermore, today the SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. What I wrote here remains fully valid. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The […]

Dow Theory Update for August 26: Non confirmation persists, and hence the primary bull market has not been confirmed

posted on: August 26, 2014

Can momentum be arbitraged away? This is the title of an interesting article posted by Dorsey Wright, which you can find here. As you will see momentum strategies (and the Dow Theory is part and parcel of momentum) are very likely to continue performing in the future because of two reasons: a) Momentum tends […]

Dow Theory Update for August 25: SPY continues making higher closing highs unconfirmed by the Transports and Industrials

posted on: August 25, 2014

No changes on the precious metals front US STOCKS The chart below says it all. Only the SPY has broken up the blue horizontal line (primary bull market highs): The Industrials and Transports remain below the primary bull market highs Hence, we cannot declare the second reaction finished and the primary bull market reconfirmed. […]

Dow Theory Update for August 21: SPY makes higher closing highs which remain unconfirmed

posted on: August 21, 2014

Precious metals exhibit weakness (this is why they are in a primary bear market). US Stocks The SPY continues making higher highs, which until now have not been confirmed by the Industrials (in spite of closing up) and the Transports, which closed down. What I wrote yesterday remains fully valid. The primary trend remains bullish, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 20: The SPY makes higher closing highs unconfirmed

posted on: August 20, 2014

No changes in the gold and silver universe. Very brief Dow Theory Update today. The SPY made higher closing highs unconfirmed by the Industrials and Transports. Thus, even though the SPY was able to pierce the last recorded primary bull market closing highs, the lack of confirmation, according to the Dow Theory (be it Schannep’s […]

Dow Theory Update for August 18: Stocks set up for either primary bear market signal or reconfirmation of primary bull market

posted on: August 18, 2014

GDX and SIL have not signaled primary bull market yet (but remain close to doing it) US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, […]

Dow Theory Update for August 13: No stock index has rallied more than 3% yet

posted on: August 13, 2014

SIL and GDX remain within striking distance of the secondary reaction highs. US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons […]

Dow Theory Update for August 12: SIL and GDX, once again, close to signaling a primary bull market

posted on: August 13, 2014

Secondary reaction in stocks runs its course US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons given here, here and […]

Dow Theory Update for August 7: Stocks extend their decline and Secondary reaction continues

posted on: August 7, 2014

Gold’s surge does not change any trend Mini Dow-Theory Update for today. Yesterday, and the day before yesterday I announced a secondary reaction for stocks. Today the SPY, Industrials and Transports closed down and deepened the ongoing secondary reaction. The chart below highlights (red rectangles) the (bearish) secondary reaction against the primary bullish trend. Orange […]