Category: Insights

Dow Theory Update for August 5 (II): Looking deeper at the secondary reaction in stocks

posted on: August 6, 2014

Trends for precious metals unchanged Yesterday, I warned that if stocks closed below their August 1st closing lows a secondary reaction would be signaled. Well, stocks did violate their August 1st lows, and accordingly, a secondary reaction has been signaled according to the Dow Theory (Schannep’s version) Here you have the chart that says it […]

Dow Theory Update for August 5: Secondary reaction for stocks likely to be signaled at today’s close

posted on: August 5, 2014

I am writing these lines two hours before the close. The SPY, Industrials and Transports are likely to close below the last recorded minor lows (those of Friday, August 1st) and accordingly a secondary (bearish) reaction against the primary bullish trend will be signaled, because: a) At least two indices declined more than 3% from […]

Dow Theory Update for July 31: Stocks are flirting with a secondary reaction

posted on: August 1, 2014

But we are not there yet. US Stocks The Industrials has been declining for 11 trading days. The Transports for 6 days and the SPY for 5 days. Thus, in spite of today’s big decline, it is still too early to signal a secondary (bearish) reaction against the primary bullish trend. Let’s remember the rules […]

Dow Theory Update for July 29: Stocks, gold, silver and their miners have not changed their trends

posted on: July 30, 2014

Reality Check for Forecasting This is the title of a great article which you can find on Dorsey Wright’s blog. It clearly shows that forecasters consistently fail in their predictions. The bottom line is clear: Trend following is a much more sensible approach. Put aside your ego and hone your skills to become good at […]

Dow Theory Update for July 29: Stocks, gold, silver and their miners have not changed their trends

posted on: July 29, 2014

Dow Theory Update for July 22: SIL and GDX have hitherto refused to signal a primary bull market

posted on: July 23, 2014

Trends remain unchanged for stocks, gold, silver and their miners. My time remains in short supply. However, there is no need for a daily update, as the markets do not deign to change their trends, not even secondary ones. US Stocks. The dreaded (and thousand times wrongly anticipated by many) secondary reaction stubbornly refuses to […]

Dow Theory Update for July 15: Primary and secondary trends unchanged

posted on: July 16, 2014

In spite of recent declines in stocks, gold and silver and their respective miners ETFs, trends remain unchanged. Here you can find my in-depth assessment of the current situation. http://www.dowtheoryinvestment.com/2014/07/dow-theory-update-for-july-11-primary.html Sincerely,The Dow Theorist

Dow Theory Update for July 11: Primary Trend could turn bullish soon for gold and silver miners

posted on: July 11, 2014

Trends for Stocks remain unchanged This is going to be a chaotic Dow Theory update, as time remains in short supply. It is likely that during next week I will not be able to post, even though I will try to alert you, if I see that trends have changed. Furthermore, I will not stick […]

Dow Theory Update for July 7: Stocks close down and trends remain unchanged

posted on: July 8, 2014

Precious miners consolidating. This is going to be a short Dow Theory post, since time is in short supply. Furthermore, it is likely that I am not going to post on a daily basis. However, I keep monitoring the markets, and should trends (primary and secondary) change, I would alert you through my blog. Stocks […]

Dow Theory Update for July 2: SPY and Industrials make higher closing highs

posted on: July 2, 2014

US Stocks The SPY and Industrials closed up. The Transports closed down. The primary trend remains bullish, as explained here, and more in-depth here. The primary trend was reconfirmed as bullish on October 17th, 2013, and November 13th, 2013 and March 7th, 2014, for the reasons given here, here and here. So the current primary […]

Dow Theory Update for July 1: Stocks make confirmed higher closing highs

posted on: July 1, 2014

Secondary reaction averted US Stocks The SPY, Industrials and Transports closed up. They made higher closing highs (confirmed), which has two implications: a) It is bullish. One day the primary bull market will end, but technically we have been wise not to outsmart the market and stick with the trend. b) It averts the impending […]

Dow Theory Update for June 30: Time requirement for secondary reaction in stocks met (Percentage decline requirement not yet)

posted on: June 30, 2014

Gold, Silver and their miners ETFs made higher (minor) highs US Stocks The SPY closed down. The Transports and Industrials closed up. Stocks are clearly losing momentum. Let’s keep a watchful eye on them, as any decline exceeding 3% could usher stocks into a secondary reaction, since the time requirement for a secondary reaction has […]